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Thursday, 29 April 2010

法医的逻辑很不合逻辑

泰国著名法医普缇无法来马,不管是否受到政治压力,都将直接影响赵明福案件的结果。如今在这样子的情况之下,另一位来自英国的著名法医彼得华尼兹,也就成了探讨真相,能够负起替死者说话这一重大责任的唯一专家。

说真的,这一专家真是来头不小,曾经主理过戴安娜王妃的死因调查,名声不可谓不响。可惜,在我看来他的逻辑程度好像真的有一点问题,难以担当重任,找出赵明福身亡的原因。

看了上面这一段话,笔者100%肯定必然会有许多朋友心里嘴上大骂笔者我不自量力,何来批评这著名法医的资格。想要开骂的朋友请先别忙,我虽然不是法医,不过基本的逻辑思考能力还是有的,各位朋友就请先看看我的意见,再来质疑或责骂我也不迟啊!

好了,言归正传。彼得来到马来西亚的第二天,就风尘仆仆的出席赵明福的验尸庭,为他的验尸报告进行供证。而在供词之中,他根据他的医药报告,得出了十八点结论,并断言赵明福并非被推下楼(记住,这点很重要,彼得的最终看法是赵明福不是被推下楼的。这可是《星洲日报》所打出的大字标题),所以也就没有他杀的可能性,一举推翻了普缇之前震惊全马的80%他杀论。

我并非法医,在医学上的经验与能力也绝对无法跟彼得或普缇相提并论,所以我针对的绝不是彼得所得出的那十八点结论,也绝没有要质疑这十八点结论的真实性(这些必须由另一个专家来鉴定,如普缇)。笔者觉得有问题的,是他最后根据那十八点结论所得出的唯一结论,也就是赵明福并不是被推下楼的!

有关注赵明福验尸庭进展的朋友,相信都会注意到彼得昨天在法庭上提出的那十八点结论,全都是根据了明福身上的伤势或痕迹来进行讨论,兹简述如下:包括了颈部、盆骨、下肢、肛门等的伤势与坠楼吻合;明福生前有尝试止跌,所以并非不省人事;明福坠楼前还在生;鞋子及衣物等痕迹与坠楼吻合;没有任何酒精或毒物在明福身上被发现等。

是的,这些都是彼得华尼兹的结论,如前段所述,小弟绝没有想要质疑这些结论的意思,但问题是,这些结论又如何能够得出明福并非被推下楼的最终结论呢?难道一个人是不能在清醒的情况下被推下楼的?难道在清醒情况下被推下楼的人就不会有彼得所说的那些伤势?

只要头脑不是太有问题的,或是逻辑思维上没有任何阻碍的朋友,都可以知道被推下楼,可以是在清醒或不清醒的情况下发生,虽然要推一个清醒的人下楼难度会比较大,但若是有四五个人且对付的是一个已经一夜没睡、一夜不吃不喝、身心俱疲的男子,要在他清醒的情况下推他下楼也并非一件太难的事情,彼得华尼兹如何如此肯定明福并非被推下楼呢?!

小弟我并非什么特权人士,所以无法亲临现场听到彼得的确实结论。但今天翻开各大报章,各大中文报章在报道这一新闻时,标题上都确确实实地写着“英法医:明福非被推下楼”(取自《星洲日报》第六页)的标题。所以,小弟我才会得出标题上所写的“法医的逻辑很不合逻辑的”结论。不是吗?得出这样子的结论,这个法医的逻辑也未免太有问题了吧?若不是法医有问题,那就是各大中文报章的问题了!

*ps:此文章笔于昨晚,亦刊登于透视大马专栏。
透視大馬

23 评论 Comments:

~aNG~伟翔 said...

明天就考我大學生涯的最後一張試卷(如無意外),所以今天要閉關修煉,關電腦了....

大家明天見!

Anonymous said...

It depends on the framework he was given by the MACC ie was he asked to solely work on 'evidences' given to him? If so, maybe based on past experiences, he may have thought he can rely on the professionalism of the govt findings and trust their bona fide taskforce. Maybe someone can also check out his past records to have a better understanding of him & his wife's integrity & character. Don't forget that many have doubts over Princess Diana's case.
He said TBH's hands showed that he tried to break the fall. If it is suicide, why did he want to break the fall? It would be better that he & the Thai pathologist both present in the court at the same time to let us hear their findings.

Anonymous said...

All the best to you & God bless.

蕭散人 said...

最重要的一點他沒有說出來。。。因為案發現場(如果是的話)好像是沒有找出任何指紋。。。所以可以推論。明福跳下去之後回到現場清理。。。應該是那樣的。

LOO(KL) said...

赵明福先生的牺牲,除了伤心还是伤心!老实说要公正赢回这场官司好像是没有什么可能了。我们的“发厅”好像不是用来审案,广东话说“飞发”的。是一个大马高官的娱乐场,愚弄人民,连活的安华都有本事把他关了六年,更何况是死无对证的赵明福先生。

LOO(KL) said...

Happy exam...考试愉快!

刘氏 said...

考试加油。

这个法医,真的是专家?看戴妃的验尸报告惹起那么多人的疑窦就知道他的能力去到哪里了。而且不要忘了戴妃的验尸报告,不是被指责他骗但政府,掩饰内情吗?现在我看又发生了同样的情况了。可悲啊,明福沉冤待雪啊!

shinliang said...

你脑袋没问题。不过可能是眼睛有问题。

I do not remember seeing any report saying that this Vanesiz claimed that TBH did not commit suicide. He merely said that he was conscious when he fell. He also said that TBH died due to the impact of the fall, and nothing else. He said that the neck marks and the anus penetration is not conclusive to being tortured before death.

Obviously as a forensic expert, he could exclude the possibility that the mark on the neck is torture, but could not exclude the possibility of torture altogether. He could not rule out the bruise on the shoulder as torture but he does not conclude it is either. Because by saying it's not white doesn't prove that it is black.

And even this, he had said very clearly.

So I wonder, where did you get this information or did I misread something?

shinliang said...

there's a higher possibility that Sin Chew Jit Poh manipulated the title, rather than Vanezis giving in such an unprofessional statement.

anyway, Malaysiainsider and Malaysiakini and thestar.com (dubios a bit I know, but still...) all did not report what Sin Chew's title say.

Maybe Sin Chew is becoming the new Utusan.

~aNG~伟翔 said...

"小弟我并非什么特权人士,所以无法亲临现场听到彼得的确实结论。但今天翻开各大报章,各大中文报章在报道这一新闻时,标题上都确确实实地写着“英法医:明福非被推下楼”(取自《星洲日报》第六页)的标题。所以,小弟我才会得出标题上所写的“法医的逻辑很不合逻辑的”结论。不是吗?得出这样子的结论,这个法医的逻辑也未免太有问题了吧?若不是法医有问题,那就是各大中文报章的问题了!"

勋亮,是你眼睛有问题吗把?请读我以上那一段,若是你没有看到马来西亚的报纸,可以上网看,报纸清清楚楚写着“明福非被推下楼”,所以我这篇文章就是质疑,即便明福是清醒的(就像你所说),那关他是不是被·推下楼什么屁事?

所以我最后一段写清楚要不是报纸错,就是法医逻辑有问题。

~aNG~伟翔 said...

Ya, your second comment is on the right path. i know is either sinchew wrong or the dr wrong, i'm not sure, so i made the conclusion on the bottom of my article.

You hold that is sinchew wrong, i don't know, because i never heard what Peter Vanezis (as what i mentioned in my article), so i can't confirmed. Even if sinchew wrong, what's wrong with my article? i just wanted to rebut the point that "明福并非被推下楼", no matter who said this, let it sinchew or Peter Vanezis.

Okay, time to back to my study!

Fair仔 said...

考试顺利!

~aNG~伟翔 said...

多谢,刚考回来了!
要睡一睡了,昨晚K书可是一夜没睡啊...

~aNG~伟翔 said...

戴安娜王妃的报告详情我不知道,当时年纪还小(小六左右吧),不记得。不过各种阴谋论在当时确是不曾停歇的。要说彼得华尼兹可靠,从这一点来看我想也不一定,不过他与皇室或政府关系良好这一点是毋庸置疑的。

普缇不来,就没有人相信会有水落石出的一天。毕竟不管是政府的法医还是这位彼得华尼兹先生,都是受薪于我们的中央政府,就算真的没有“拿人手软”,本身的立场一开始就已经不中立了。

shinliang said...

dammit. can you stop insulting me and assume i never read newspaper in malaysia.

this is the freaking last time i visit this blog.

~aNG~伟翔 said...

walao, shin liang, if you said my eye got problem then i just comment back with what i read in newspaper. walao, u said this is insult???? and why "insulting"? u didn't read all the article and then implied my brain or eye got problem, i didn't said it's insult, and i said maybe you in england, maybe (我用了若是) didn't read malaysian paper, so don't know what the local paper said. this is why you said nobody said TBH is not pushed by people.

is this insult? i don't think so lor. relax.

anyway, if you feel this is insult, i sincerely apologize to you. sorry.

刘氏 said...

放轻松点。不觉得是羞辱你,反而你大剌剌的说人眼睛有问题才更像是吧。讨论而已,何必那么小气,还是回到论点吧。

Anonymous said...

Woei Shang, if I were you, just move on & don't bother with people of such complexity.

Mahati 'legacy' - I can insult you but you must listen, obey & respect what I said.

Surprise, surprise. When did UK adopt the Bolehland culture? I studied & worked there for a few yrs ( My 1st & MBA degrees are from UK. ) before returning here. I have yet to come across people of such attitude when I was there. ( There again, I could be wrong because my social circle probably are mainly cultured beings.)

~aNG~伟翔 said...

多谢刘兄和无名的留言。

Anyway, i respect everyone's right to leave a comment here. And i will try my best to read all of the comments and if necessary, reply it. Thanks a lot for all the comments.

Loo (吉隆坡) said...

伟翔兄,
你以上的回应我给你“社会大学”的第一张考卷及格。你够火候,够大量。。。我看好你,大把前途,再接再厉!

~aNG~伟翔 said...

Loo兄你这样说弄得我不知掉要回复什么了。只好说,多谢,我会加油的!

Daniel said...

Wei xiang, i would say you are really a very down to earth person. A thumb-up for you.

You are absolutely right to say that should respect every comment in your blog, but you shall be reminded that not all the remarks are respectable or worth respect. Do differentiate it and don't waste you time on those arrogant remarks.

Cheers.

~aNG~伟翔 said...

Thanks....

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